July update - Dodgy Dan

 
Some of you may have clicked through in the past to my sponsored link to BETFAN, in which case you might be interested in a quote or two from the Gambling Systems Reviews  website, on 13th July 2010:

 
“... the world of Betfan is getting murkier and murkier and my advice as I mentioned yesterday is to not be taken in by the aggressive marketing and by the products.”

“There is something disturbing about the BETFAN set up and they state they remove losing services but clearly do not and actively promote them in fact. They claim to only manage the services which of course removes all liability and blame and I personally am not sure that is the case that they only manage services. Two systems they are heavily promoting are Betfan Bankers Bonus and Odds on Profit (under the name Andrew Cannon). Now both these systems have exactly the same staking plan and wording in that staking plan which sets alarm bells ringing, what is the likelihood that two different people contact Betfan with winning systems that happen to be identical but give out different selections. It is our opinion that both these systems are very dangerous, they are in effect Martingale systems on very short prices. Betfan are clever in not having any stop loss so they will always claim it is winning as they will eventually hit a winner.”
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Anyway this is fairly typical of what reviewers in general tend to say about tipster services in general, and it’s backed up by what punters tend to say about tipster services they’ve given a go to. There’s two types of tipsters. One type tries his best, but gets it wrong more often than not. The other type is shysters, charlatans, scam merchants and fly-by-nights. They don’t make their money by backing the horses, they make their money by selling their tips to mugs. These are characters you don’t want on your Christmas card list.

Time was, back in the bad old days, I would have continued to flog memberships of outfits like this anyway, and happily pocketed a little commission when I made enough sales. That's what plenty of these opportunists do and no-where more so than over the internet. And I wouldn't be entirely honest if I said I didn't once number myself among their number.

But times have changed and I'm a reformed character. Don't know if I'm just getting soft in my old age, but now I wouldn't be happy selling stuff I wouldn't want to buy myself.

I'm checking out a few other offers, as we speak, and I'll let you know how any of them get on. In due course.

And as promised, along the way I’ll show you some genuine insider tricks for making a bit of spare cash out of the horse business, and with no further beating about the bush I’ll start by showing you one tidy little system today.

The trick with most decent systems is to ignore the tipsters and instead look at what’s happening in the actual markets.
Try this one, for starters. Here’s a strategy that’s recently been endorsed by no less a figure than Mr Nick Laight, guru of the alternative entrepreneur world, scourge of scamsters, esteemed editor of What Really Makes Money and suchlike publications. Here’s one of his mugshots:

 

This is just an example of the type of top-drawer source I refer to in compiling my extensive information base. And here's one of his tips:

At around 11-ish any morning, by which time the markets have developed enough for trends to have visibly emerged, go to this bit of the Racing Post website:

http://thebettingsite.racingpost.co.uk

First up, this gives you a list of all the day’s races. Click on any one of these races, and you get what we call the race card, which gives you all the detailed info. Here's an example. It's Wednesday, 14th July, and this particular race happens to be the 3.10 at Uttoxeter.

 

 

 

 

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Now notice that along the top there’s a list of bookies, with nice little colourful logos. And then along the row next to each horse’s name, you see what prices each bookie is offering on each horse. At the top of the list, for instance, is a horse called Mad Jack Duncan. You’ll see that Ladbrokes (that’s the red one, if you can’t read my blurry screenshot) is offering 5/2, while right next door William Hill is offering 3, which is short for 3/1.


Now if the price is printed in red, it means that the odds are shortening, or the price is going down, which is another way of saying the same thing. What this indicates to the savvy observer is that plenty of punters are fancying this horse and putting their money on it.


(If the price is blue, it means the price is going up, or “drifting” as we call it in the trade. This means nobody thinks this horse has got a hope in hell so nobody wants to back it. So the bookies offer a better deal to try to tempt you out of your cash.)

What we’re looking for is a horse whose price is going down at all the bookies, or at least at most of the bookies. So look for the longest row of red prices. In this case, that means a horse called Hold the Bid:

 

And then we compare these prices to what the Racing Post thinks the price should be, which they obligingly tell us at the bottom of the race card:

 

 

And here we see that the Racing Post reckon the price for Hold the Bid ought to be around 12/1. And you can see that the actual current price is considerably shorter than the Racing Post forecast.

Now what this indicates is that the horse is what we call “fancied”. That means, some information of some sort has got out somehow, that makes people think it’s a winner.

So, well, it may be worth a flutter. If you’re feeling bullish put your cash on its nose. But if you can catch the horse before its price shortens too much, and you're more in the mood for a lower-risk investment, then go each way. Or if you use Betfair you can play even safer and just back it to be placed.

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The result of the 3.10 at Uttoxeter? Mad Jack Duncan won, and Hold the Bid came no-where. A bit of a Tommy Cooper moment here, you may well think. Only goes to show, not even my scientific approach gets it right always.

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There are a few other bits of information you might want to dig out first before parting with your hard-earned cash, but this is as good a place to start as any. It does really make money, sometimes. I’ll tell you more, in good time, in my subsequent revelations, as and when. There are plenty of horse gurus all over the internet who’ll charge you for tips like this, but hey, I’m giving it you for free.

Happy punting
 
Dan

 

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